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2007 predictions review and predictions for 2008

OK, after I was daring enough to publish some predictions for 2007, let's see how I did:

  • The uptake of RoR will continue. JRuby will make a diffenrence and will allow RoR to make its way into the enterprises. Similar frameworks in other dynamic languages will rather help RoR than take away from it (Django, Grails, etc) because they will only increase the overall interest in dynamic languages.

    I'd say half-right. RoR's rise did continue, albeit with much lower pace. However, Django, Grails, etc did not make much of an impact.

  • REST will become mainstream in the sense that it will not be considered the poor little relative of SOAP anymore, but a viable alternative even for the enterprisey guys.

    REST has become mega mainstream, up to the point that by now saying "SOAP" has become a bit of an embarrassment.

  • Macs will continue to lead the pack in terms of innovation on the desktop.

    Uhm, yes. Neither Vista nor Leopard changed the world, so the distance between these competitors stayed like it was before.

  • Location-based services have a chance to grow a lot. I expect a technology mish-mash of GPS, RFID, bar code readers on camera phones, etc. Nothing will be ready for the very big stage but we will see some trials.

    Yes, we've seen Google Maps on the iPhone and related stuff. LBS is gaining steam.

Right. Encouraged by this tremendous success of 3.5/4 I'll dare to do another round for 2008:

  • Android will turn out to be a nice platform for phone applications (nicer than Symbian and J2ME that is). However, it will not be able to change the rules of the mobile industry. But changing the rules is what the mobile industry needs in order to get some real innovation (see, partially, the iPhone). Therefore, I think that Apple will be the company pushing the envelope of the mobile industry in 2008 again. Not as much as 2007, though.

  • Adobe Air will create some initial interest and will serve as a starting point for other desktop/web integration technologies (like Mozilla's). However, Air's lasting impact will lie in increasing interest in Flex (which will see more developers in 2008).

  • In 2008 the social networking craze will continue. OpenSocial and the Facebook API will go head-to-head for the developer's minds and we will see more interesting applications emerge. At the same time we will find ways to monetize social network applications.

  • And here's a negative one: all efforts to bridge the PC and the TV to watch movies over the Internet will fail (once more). And that is despite of all the effort that is poured into this idea.


I'll be back in a year to check on these.

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